{"id":14416,"date":"2018-03-14T07:01:25","date_gmt":"2018-03-14T06:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/karmaka.de\/?p=14416"},"modified":"2018-03-15T09:14:59","modified_gmt":"2018-03-15T08:14:59","slug":"towards-a-theoretical-determination-of-the-geographical-probability-distribution-of-meteoroid-impacts-on-earth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/?p=14416","title":{"rendered":"Towards a theoretical determination of the geographical probability distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth<span class=\"badge-status\" style=\"background:#787878\">OPEN ACCESS<\/span>&nbsp;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Jorge I. Zuluaga, Mario Sucerquia<\/p>\n<p>Accepted for publication in MNRAS <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1801.05720\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>PDF (OPEN ACCESS)<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\nupdate (15 March 2018 ): <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/mnras\/advance-article-abstract\/doi\/10.1093\/mnras\/sty702\/4937817?redirectedFrom=fulltext\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>LINK<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Tunguska and Chelyabinsk impact events occurred inside a geographical area of only 3.4% of the Earth\u2019s surface. Although two events hardly constitute a statistically signi\ufb01cant demonstration of a geographical pattern of impacts, their spatial coincidence is at least tantalizing. To understand if this concurrence re\ufb02ects an underlying geographical and\/or temporal pattern, we must aim at predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of meteoroid impacts on Earth. For this purpose we designed, implemented and tested a novel numerical technique, the \u201cGravitational Ray Tracing\u201d (GRT) designed to compute the relative impact probability (RIP) on the surface of any planet. GRT is inspired by the so-called ray-casting techniques used to render realistic images of complex 3D scenes. In this paper we describe the method and the results of testing it at the time of large impact events. Our \ufb01ndings suggest a non-trivial pattern of impact probabilities at any given time on Earth. Locations at 60 \u2212 90\u25e6 from the apex are more<br \/>\nprone to impacts, especially at midnight. Counterintuitively, sites close to apex direction have the lowest RIP, while in the antapex RIP are slightly larger than average. We present here preliminary maps of RIP at the time of Tunguska and Chelyabinsk events and found no evidence of a spatial or temporal pattern, suggesting that their coincidence was fortuitous. We apply the GRT method to compute theoretical RIP at the location and time of 394 large \ufb01reballs. Although the predicted spatio-temporal impact distribution matches marginally the observed events, we successfully predict their impact speed distribution.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jorge I. Zuluaga, Mario Sucerquia Accepted for publication in MNRAS PDF (OPEN ACCESS) update (15 March 2018 ): LINK &#8220;Tunguska and Chelyabinsk impact events occurred inside a geographical area of only 3.4% of the Earth\u2019s&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90,96],"tags":[4412,313,1808,141],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14416"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14416"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14416\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14447,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14416\/revisions\/14447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}