{"id":42534,"date":"2026-09-09T15:10:34","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T13:10:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/?p=42534"},"modified":"2026-09-09T15:10:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T13:10:36","slug":"calibration-of-cneos-fireball-velocities-and-the-robustness-of-nominally-hyperbolic-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/?p=42534","title":{"rendered":"Calibration of CNEOS Fireball Velocities and the Robustness of Nominally Hyperbolic Events<span class=\"badge-status\" style=\"background:#787878\">OPEN ACCESS<\/span>&nbsp;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Volkan Duran, Abraham Loeb<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2609.06745\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>PDF (OPEN ACCESS)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"justify-text\">&#8220;The NASA\/JPL CNEOS Fireball Data catalogue provides a near-global record of bright atmospheric entries but does not report per-event velocity covariance. We calibrate its kinematic accuracy using 19 events with independent reference trajectories and use optical, satellite, radar, and infrasound catalogues as source-specific controls. For nine modern high-quality comparisons, the CNEOS-minus-reference speed residual has mean -1.00 km s-\u00b9 and standard deviation .86 km s-\u00b9; variance decomposition assigns 0.77 km s-\u00b9 to the CNEOS component. The radiant residuals have a 0.74 degree per-axis core plus one 16.3 degree outlier, so the extreme tail remains poorly determined. Seven of 354 complete CNEOS states are nominally hyperbolic without correction. A +0.9935 km s-\u00b9 atmospheric-stage shift produces five additional crossings, but these are treated only as sensitivity cases. Polar-IM (2026 April 1) is the strongest post-2018 CNEOS anomaly, whereas independent GLM-LI stereo solutions yield 57.3 \u00b1 2.0 and 56.7 \u00b1 3.0 km s-\u00b9, close to their direction-specific parabolic thresholds. We conclude that CNEOS can identify priority candidates, but secure interstellar classification requires an independent, uncertainty-bearing three-dimensional trajectory for the same event.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Volkan Duran, Abraham Loeb PDF (OPEN ACCESS) &#8220;The NASA\/JPL CNEOS Fireball Data catalogue provides a near-global record of bright atmospheric entries but does not report per-event velocity covariance. We calibrate its kinematic accuracy using 19&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[118,1162,221,5650,5651,7238],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42534"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42534"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42534\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42535,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42534\/revisions\/42535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/karmaka.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}