Probing the Taxonomic Diversity of the Small Near-Earth Object PopulationOPEN ACCESS 

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Andy J. López-Oquendo, David E. Trilling, Michael Mommert and Michaël Marsset

The Planetary Science Journal, Volume 7, Number 9, published: 17 September 2026

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“Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) represent the immediate source population of meteors and meteorites and provide a direct window into the compositional and dynamical evolution of the inner solar system. However, their small sizes, rapid rotation rates, and short observability windows have historically limited systematic compositional characterization. We present results from a multiyear rapid-response near-infrared spectrophotometric survey of recently discovered NEOs conducted with the UKIRT/WFCAM instrument between 2016 and 2024. Our campaign obtained 371 observation sequences, yielding reliable color measurements and probabilistic taxonomic classifications for 122 NEOs, with diameters ranging from ∼5 to ∼150 m and a median size of ∼60 m. We employed lightcurve-corrected Z, J, H, and K photometry and a machine learning–based classification framework to derive both observed and debiased taxonomic distributions as a function of object size. The observed taxonomic fractions show a population of small NEOs dominated by S-complex and C/X-complex objects at almost equal proportions. After accounting for observational biases, however, the inferred intrinsic population is instead dominated by dark, carbonaceous (C/X-complex) bodies, with implications for the true compositional makeup of the small NEO population. We further explore connections between small NEOs, meteorite fall statistics, and atmospheric filtering effects, finding that a substantial fraction of carbonaceous material likely fails to survive atmospheric entry. These results highlight the importance of debiased surveys of small NEOs for interpreting the meteorite record, refining delivery models from the main belt, and informing future mission target selection and planetary defense strategies.”

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